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PHILADELPHIA – Aggressiveness has served the Eagles’ organization well, dating back to the Doug Pederson era.
Philadelphia tried to use it on Sunday to offload Pederson and his Jacksonville Jaguars. However, what most would consider over-aggression kept an overmatched Jags team in the game and actually offered Jacksonville a chance to steal an improbable victory at Lincoln Financial Field until Nakobe Dean closed the door with a game-closing end- zone interception with 1:38 remaining.
The first question Nick Sirianni asked after the game was about the meat he left on the bone due to failed fourth-down conversions and eschewing PATs for useless two-point conversions.
It was classic post-match doubt, rooted in a preconception of the outcome.
“We’ve done pretty well with that in the past,” the head coach said.
Critics who miss this point usually fail to understand that good decisions do not guarantee positive outcomes, and vice versa.
“You always think about everything. You think about who you have. You think about your past experiences with it. You always look at the analyzes of it,” says Sirianni. “We’ve been pretty good with that.
“Today (Jacksonville) did a good job. And I will look at everything. At this point, I always do what I think is best for the football team.”
Decisions in the NFL are always based on predictive models, whether they are analytical or the more gut-based experience approach.
On Sunday, the Eagles were 18 for 20 conversions, a 90% conversion rate that even surpassed the team’s success with future Hall of Fame center Jason Kelce.
It was a smart move to drive on that, especially on conversion attempts when the Jags gave up clearance.
“Today it didn’t work. That’s the way it goes,” Sirianni said. “That’s the hat I have to wear.”
No one researches past gamebooks when fourth-down conversions or two-point attempts succeed, even if they understand the counterintuitive idea that not all of those were necessarily good decisions because of that success.
And Sirianni said the quiet part out loud.
“If we get a fourth down and we convert a fourth down, nothing is actually said. If we don’t do that, I understand there will be questions,” Sirianni said.
It’s part of the job to understand that outcome bias will always trump logic and reasoning.
“Again, I have to have the balls to actually do that at the end of the day and say, ‘Am I doing everything I can do to help us win the game?’” Sirianni asked rhetorically. “At those times I thought so, but I will go back and look at it again.”
Ironically, the litmus test can only come after a successful play. If you say to yourself, “Yes, it worked, but if you keep doing the same things it probably won’t be positive,” that’s probably a bad decision.
Failure clouds everything.
Arguing that a failed fourth-down conversion due to a late throw is a bad call, or ignoring a 90% success rate on tush pushes only in hindsight is as simple as it is predictable.
The whole idea is to stack good decisions to increase the chances of positive outcomes, and 18-of-20 is the definition of playing the odds.
It didn’t work on Sunday. The good news is that wasn’t the case and the Eagles were still able to escape with a win.
MORE NFL: Eagles’ Defensive Star Calls Play Against Jaguars